"washington journal" is live with your callswithtweets and emails, next. >> so, we asked them to look beyond the speeches, the attacks, and the ads. look to the record. because words are cheap. a record is real and it is earned with effort. >> we have come too far to turn back now. we have come too far to let our hearts grow faint. now is the time to keep pushing forward, educate all of our kids, rebuild our infrastructure, the stock -- discover new sources of energy, restore our democracy, and make sure that no matter who you are, no matter what you look like for

where you come from, no matter your last name or who you love, you can make it in america if you try. [applause] ♪ host: president obama in virginia, before that was mitt romney in colorado as this last- minute campaign marathon continues, 48 hours before polls opened in much of the country. it is sunday, november 4. it is not just a presidential election, but the presidential races getting a lot of attention. virginia is the home to the most expensive race in this cycle. "60 minutes" will be looking at the senate, with -- with former minute -- former members saying that it is bogged down with gridlock. republicans are expected to hold

on to the majority in the house, but democrats are expected to gain seats. we will begin with this question, very simple, as we wind down this presidential campaign, tell us who will win and why. host: as always, you can join us on facebook, send it to e-mail -- journal@c-span.org, or send us a tweet at twitter.com/c- spanwj. let's go the battleground states and the headlines, courtesy of the newseum this morning. from "the cleveland plain dealer," it is all about ohio. meanwhile, "the sunday tribune

review," "pennsylvania still in play." pennsylvania is shown at a dead heat. 47% for the president, 47% for mitt romney. we will have live coverage of the mitt romney campaign appearance later today. in western pennsylvania, obama saying the president deserves another four years. from the tampa -- "tampa tribune," "paving the way to the presidency." the obama and romney campaign tosco on the attack in rallies. both the president and the vice- president are shown campaigning in the granite state in the final hours of this presidential campaign. just some of the headlines this morning. some of you are already weighing in on twitter and facebook about who will win and why.

david says that it is mitt romney, it is all about jobs and money. christopher says -- definitely not the american people. we are asking, in part, who you think will win and why. the annual crystal ball is called the prediction addition. we will share what the experts are thinking this sunday. steven is on the fund this morning. good morning. caller: i am 63 and can remember all the way back to president eisenhower. he was a republican, kennedy was a democrat. and we had carter, who was a democrat. and then we had reagan, a republican. it went back and forth. if any of these people were going to fix anything -- i hate to insult the american people,

but i am telling you, they have got to be clueless. after 60 years of this, republican, democrat, the shape we are in right now, i do not know how anyone thinks of all of a sudden we can mysteriously and magically get the system fixed now as we vote for obama and romney. it just boggles my mind that people can actually think like that. host: who are you going to vote for? caller: i will be voting for gary johnson. are the republicans or democrats going to give us precious metal in the reserve system? the lobbies, the corporations are basically running the show. it basically goes on and on. neither the republicans or democrats have anything like that land.

host of the headline from "the baltimore sun," "the decision time." eric, good morning. caller: good morning. host: go ahead, you are on the air. caller: i want to say that i believe that barack obama deserves another four years. mitt romney has just been flip- floping and it has been ridiculous. it is totally disrespectful, the way the republicans are doing this. they have not tried to help from the beginning. i do not understand why everyone thinks that romney should win. especially when it came to the auto industry. the auto industry, obama

definitely helped and romney was against that. the commercial he had on television the other day is totally ridiculous, about the price of oil to china. i do not know, i think that obama deserves another four years. host: there are a number of stories about battleground state ohio. give us a sense about what you have been seeing in your own neighborhood in terms of signs, door knocking, i know you are a democrat supports the president, but if you have seen much from those candidates in your area? caller: i have not. host: the next one, joe, a pleasure to talk to you on this 48 hours before the election. caller: i have never been so fired up in my life.

i have been working for mitt romney for six years. i am a small businessman and stockholder. i think that mitt romney is going to be elected on tuesday and he will be the greatest president for the stock market. i tell you what, i have not been able to sleep much for the last month. there is just no doubt in my mind. host: i know you're going to tell us about -- tell us that he will win, but tell us why. what will the outcome be? what will happen and why? caller: he needs to be elected to save the economy. we have a terrible economy and the majority of the american people realize that the obama policies have been miserable failures and mitt romney knows how to create jobs. he is brilliant, a job creator. i think that under him we will have the best economy in history and steve, i cannot wait until

tuesday to find out that mitt romney will be the next president of united states of america. host: i will make one prediction, we will know on tuesday night, wednesday morning. thanks for calling, we appreciate that. this prediction from georgia -- host: you can weigh in on our twitter account. tell us who you think will win and why. give us your prediction. some voting early, others are flipping a coin. from the new hampshire sunday news, "mitt romney makes a final pitch in portsmouth." next, sheila, joining us on the phone from newark, delaware. independent line, good morning. who is going to win and why? caller: i hope that obama does.

he is for the people, not like mitt romney, who just lies and tells stories. i do not know what people want to believe anything that he says. he is for the rich. those two guys that give him all that money, they are going to be telling him what to do. i hope he does not get in. he takes his company's overseas and has closed so many companies down, i do not know what people do not see this. he is not for the people, he is for making money. host: thank you very much for the call from "the new york daily news." a crucial face-off, "mitt romney and the president." the election being viewed as too close to call. here are some of the final campaign appearances as we track the candidates.

mitt romney, colorado. the president, virginia. 8:30 eastern time, englewood, colorado. [video clip] >> change cannot measured in speeches, it is measured in achievements. four years ago candidate obama promised to do so very much, but he has fallen so very short period he promised he would be a post-partisan president. but he has been most partisan. dividing, attacking, blaming. he was going to focus on creating jobs, instead he focused on obama care, which killed jobs. he said he would cut the federal deficit in half, but then he doubled it. he said he would bring the unemployment rate down to 5.2% and on friday we learned that it is 9 million jobs short of what

he promised. unemployment, unemployment today is higher than when barack obama took office. by the way, he also promised he would propose a plan by now to save social security and medicare. he did not. he rated $716 billion from medicare to pay for obama care. host: that is mitt romney on the campaign trail in colorado. we are asking you who is going to win and why. among those selected to give the annual selection, the prediction is that mitt romney will get 261 electoral votes, the president would get 277, and the president will win. the horse racing columnist is predicting the opposite, moronic in 204, the president 254. all of the people, of all the

people selected for the crystal ball, only two are predicting that mitt romney will win. many predicting that iran will get 240, compared to 298 for the president. reid wilson thinks the president will get 294 electoral votes compared to 2444 mitt romney. there is this prediction from jim cramer, 444 the president. that would be a landslide. our question this morning, tell us who is going to win and why. ruby is on the phone from california. caller: i think that romney is going to win. i think people can really see

that obama is a lawyer and he is a good talker. and he is a good rally year. but the mitt romney record tells the truth about what he can do for america. mitt romney as for the citizens of the united states of america. we have a president that i and 60% of his briefings he keeps talking about how he saved general motors. listen, even if they would have gone bankrupt, they would have come back no matter what. president obama wants to take credit for osama bin laden, when our military men did that. passing the dream act without going through the chain of command, i think he thought he was going to change washington, but washington changed him. he is a good talker and a good lawyer. he could get you off on a murder

case, that is what lawyers do, that is all that he is. host: thank you for the call. mark williams says this -- host: the crystal ball contest from "the washington post," has a look at the senate and house, with a prediction that the senate will be provided -- divided this way -- host: of all these predictions, jim cramer is predicting that the house will turn democratic. most of the other predictions are expecting house will stay republican with a diminished majority for the house republicans and that everyone is predicting the senate democrats will maintain their majority according to the washington post. -- "the washington post."

joe, good morning, from arcadia. caller: i am voting for president obama. i believe that he will win. mitt romney is nothing but for the rich. he has essentially ruled out half the country, criticizing 47% of the people by paying no income taxes, but these people pay income taxes, school taxes, all kinds of taxes. they get a break when it comes to income taxes. the rich, they get multimillion- dollar tax breaks and no one complains about that. host: thank you for the call. "troubles ahead," according to "cq weekly." a roster of critical issues as the president tries to reassure voters. digging into the body of the story is this --

host: as we said the the top of the program, "60 minutes" is going to be focusing on the senate and whether or not it is dysfunctional or broken. our next caller, kathleen, calling from ohio. you are probably at the center of the battleground. caller: we all what -- we always are. president obama has such a strong round game here. people really need to get out and pump it out here on sunday, monday, and tuesday, but i think he has got it, you know? he did not accomplish everything

that he wanted with the republicans standing in his way on almost every issue. i mean, he accomplished a great deal. i actually think that romney is a good guy, but he has been all over the place. he could not stand on his record in massachusetts because he had to we've passed the t baggers, so you do not know what he is doing. president obama is solidly on the side of the working class, and people basically know that. here in dayton, i have spent time in athens, people are working hard for him, but they need to get out and keep doing it. host: non-partisan question, these are the photographs this morning, giving new all the signs in the cincinnati area. what are you seeing on the ground? how much activity by both campaigns?

caller: i know the president obama has far more field offices. i have been to several of them. there are a lot of people out working for him. frankly, i have not been in the romney office and have not talked to many of those people out working, but as far as the obama field office, people are pumping it out. host: your prediction? the electoral vote and the popular vote? caller: i would go more with what shockchuck bodd said. i think the popular vote will go with obama as well. host: thank you for the call. carl, from morristown, pennsylvania. mitt romney will be in your state later today. who's going to win and why? caller go good to talk to you again, steve. i have been saying for a long

time that obama will not break 46%. the youth are disenchanted. at first what he was, he was one of these ones that they love to go for. the youth do not have a cause any more. the next person for them will be a woman. what we really see here is the clintons are really running the entire show. this is the third time and it will be a fourth time for the clintons. look at where they are, secretary of state, messing things up in libya. look at bill clinton making these speeches. clinton is feeding all the information into those teleprompter is. obama was just reciting what they wanted him to say. i think it will be running. i do not know what the electoral college will come out, but i know that obama will not get 46%. that is the way it will end up.

host: thank you for a call from the front page. -- thank you for the call. from the front page, "campaign calls to get out the vote." "as the marathon years is conclusion, the weary residents are yearning. the contest has devolved into political trench warfare." "the outcome relies greatly on who will get their supporters to the polls by pestering, voting, and even bossing more voters to the polls." that is from "the new york times." let's give back to the campaign trail and virginia, where the president wrapped up in marathon yesterday with a late rally in manassas. [video clip] >> governor romney is a talented

salesman. he has tried as hard as he can to repackage the same ideas and he has got -- i think president clinton called it the brass the collet change. [laughter] now, let me tell you, we know what change looks like. [applause] we know what change looks like and what governor romney is telling us it is. host: last night in virginia, "the washington post" put together this map to give you a visual sense of where the campaigns are going. most of the states, very little activity. no surprise, ohio, colorado, michigan, florida, new hampshire, getting the vast majority of political events. of course in these last 48 hours, all of the candidates back in ohio and virginia. this programming note, we will

have a final campaign rally by the president where he campaigned in iowa. we will have the final appearance in new hampshire of mitt romney tomorrow evening. of course, we are here live all day today as well. michigan, independent line. our question, who is going to win and why? caller: i think that president obama will win. good morning, steve. i think the president will win by a good margin. i have always been a conservative republican. you can see what the republican party has done to people like ron paul, and he was not even given a voice at the national convention. i think that the system is corrupt and people have no choice but to vote for obama. host: thank you for the call.

this comment -- host: "the new york daily news," supporting barack obama in 2008, supporting mitt romney in their editorial. inside it says -- "our choice for the future." host: that is from "of the new york daily news" editorial -- that is from "the new york daily news editorial." this one, "obama has not been a perfect president. vital issues remain all but unaddressed.

most disappointingly, the promise of a new politics to move us beyond this partisan divide remains painfully unfulfilled, but he has been a very good president." that is the editorial from "the baltimore sun." who is going to win on tuesday? your calls this morning, tell us who and why. good morning. caller: good morning to you. good morning to the united states of america. i believe that obama is one to win. i believe that obama is going to win, because he is the one that , like noah to build the ark. romney is supposed to be building the church. and he is telling more lies.

we know, to hear him in the dark, it is what obama build. america, open your eyes, the church is closing in on us. thank you. host: thank you for the call. phyllis, camden, tenn.. caller: i just wanted to say that mitt romney definitely will win. because obama kept a promise. he kept the promise when he said energy prices will necessarily skyrocket. they have. also the cover-up in libya, hillary is done after this. people do not want to be rich, they are just envious, that is all. [unintelligible] host: go ahead? caller: mitt romney is an honest, god-fearing man, and he

will win big. it will be a landslide, just to watch. host: thank you for the call. this e-mail -- "mitt romney will win." from "the washington examiner," counting the candidates and outside groups, george allen still fighting headwinds in virginia. ohio, then wisconsin, connecticut. pennsylvania, $35 million. missouri, a candidate's spending $22 million, $8 million in outside money. nevada, $18 million. independent line, good morning. who is going to win? caller: i think that mr. obama is going to win, but i had three

points to make and i would like you to pick one. beer summit, take one for the team, or buyer's remorse. can you pick one? host: i will let you pick. my job is to get to the phone calls. caller: let me have all three, then. host: go ahead. caller: mitt romney will never have a beer summit, he will never mediate. nothing will ever happen like that, first of all. he does not drink. take one for the team? i do not think he would take one for the team. i think he would make america team america. he would make team america take one for him. his religiosity, he may want to force that on america when we are not ready. also, the buyer's remorse. i wrote down the we would be darned if we do and donned if we

do not. we will wind up with more gridlock and the republicans will wind up with mr. obama anyway. host: ok. "washington post," the annual crystal ball addition. we are taking off from that and asking you who will be winning on tuesday and why. this is from tom freeman, looking at the morning after the election and what congress will face when they return. he writes --

host: there's also this, from kathleen parker, inside "the washington post." host: that is this morning from katherine parker, herpes and side of "the washington post." -- her piece in side of "the washington post." a safer, more confident prediction on what will happen in the aftermath. this is from frank bruni.

host: some of the opinion pieces this morning, that is from "the new york times." this is a 32nd mitt romney advertisement released yesterday morning, taking off of something the president said on friday evening. you will see the c-span footage in this political spot. [video clip] >> did you see what president obama said today? he asked his supporters to vote for revenge? for revenge? >> of voting is the best revenge. >> i asked the american people to vote for love of country.

>> i am at romney and i approve this message. >> headlines, campaign showing hampshire, critical as they both campaign in the state. below that is the wife of tend kennedy, campaigning for barack obama in new hampshire. back to your calls, who will win and why? emily is on the phone from a atlanta, georgia. caller: good morning. i predict president obama to win. i could never vote for governor romney, he refused to release his tax returns. i think we would see the profit he made from all the companies that he went into to fail.

host: he has only release taxes from two years, not 3. caller: right, and i am concerned about the past years, it would show where he made his money. host: thank you very much for the call. this from "city times," "double down." a new advertisement that runs about three and a half minutes from the obama campaign, here is a portion. [video clip] >> if i did not help, i would not be able to live with myself. >> we have got to keep it going for four more years. we have to do it. >> if you are willing to stick with me, to fight with me, go on with me, if you are willing to work even harder in this election than you did in the last election, i guarantee you we will finish what we started.

we are so fired up. we are so ready to go. we are going to remind the world just why it is the united states of america is the greatest nation on earth. thank you. god love you. got less the united states of america. -- god bless the united states of america. host: that web advertisement from the obama campaign. this point is from our twitter page -- host: another story that continues to attention, from "the weekly standard." the mysteries of benghazi. "yes, there is an election, by the time most subscribers read this, we will know if the country has elected a new president or chosen to keep the one we have had for the last four years."

host: stephen hays, "the weekly standard." "mysteries of benghazi," that is the name of the editorial. kansas, good morning. caller: good morning. i certainly hope that mitt romney wins, because he is a christian. he can bring this country back to a christian nation, like it used to be. obama is so immoral. making beer in the white house. same-sex marriage. billy graham had a full-page

advertisement the other day, vote for a biblical person. someone who believes in the bible. obama has let our country go from $10.50 trillion to $16 trillion in debt. does that not mean something to someone? i want to say that clinton is not running for president. it is obama. obama, it was reported, over the last week in september, he has cost the taxpayers $1.2 billion just last year for running around the country in an airplane for his vacations and his -- all the times he goes to play basketball at different places. goes to jail and no, david letterman, michelle obama and her interviews -- jay leno,

david letterman, michelle obama and her interviews. host: where do you get that figure? caller: it was a tv show at the end of september. this man was a guest, i do not remember his name. host: prediction time. give me the electoral college vote and popular vote. caller: i am afraid of obama, he has got too much dirty stuff behind him. but i hope that they make romney the president. host: we have this from joseph ramirez -- host: we have the extensive story this morning from the front page of "the washington post." here is the breakdown in congress.

"voters seem likely to opt for the status quo." host: there is a look at the breakdown. a reminder, we will have live coverage of a mitt romney rally this afternoon in pennsylvania, and the president as he campaigns in florida. mark is joining us from homestead, florida. prediction time, who is going to

win and why? caller, for the first time i went from democrat to independent and i voted republican. when i went to the polls that i was undecided on yesterday, right when i got in, i felt like mitt romney and paul ryan would be better for the economy. host: you went in not knowing? caller: not knowing at all. host: but when it came down to it? what was the deciding factor for you? caller: the economy. i've weighed everything and said it was bigger than anything else of this point. host: who did you vote for in 2008? caller: president obama." -- president obama. host: you are one of those swing voters in a swing state. caller: i was not the only one in line yesterday.

a lot of african-americans there said they were undecided and i was very shocked, i thought i was the only met romney supporter in line, but i may not have been. those other issues, abortion and all of that, with hash themselves out. it would take an actual act of the supreme court, when it came to health care and things like that. right now the economy is more important to me. host: thank you very much for the call. we will be talking politics on "and newsmakers" live at 10:00 eastern time. our congress -- our conversation will be with debbie wasserman schultz.

there is this piece from "the new york times" with an interesting perspective, going back 50 years. john f. kennedy campaigned in 49 states, richard nixon visited all 50. the current contest is just as close, but candidates heavily campaigned in 10 states. there are towns in a high of the have received more attention than the entire west coast. this -- the title is called "the vanishing battleground."

host: vivian is on the phone from jamaica, new york. caller: good morning. i am calling because obama has to be the winner. he has to be the winner. because why? my mother is a sick woman, very sick. i have to pay for all for medication. with obama, i do not pay for one penny, i have all the education -- all of the medication for my mother. obama has four more years and with that four more years, he can do more. host: there is this from our

twitter page, christopher says that -- host: floyd is on the phone from the battleground state of virginia. republican line. good morning, floyd. caller: thank you for taking my call. host: where is jones will, by the way? caller, the far western part. host: while you are talking, by the way, i want to hear from you, but this is the crystal ball. predictions on the presidential election. who is going to win. please, go ahead. caller: i think that mitt romney will win. especially in this area. obama has really cut into the coal business. i think that his four years have been a disaster as far as jobs.

i think that mitt romney is going to create jobs. the other thing is that when it comes to abortion, i think that people do not want to face got when they die. how that blood, where they have touched them, where they voted for obama and got that on their hands and on their sole, because all of us have to face god. we do not want that on our record when we go to meet god. host of this is from langley, high-school, government classism in mclean, virginia. the prediction is that mitt romney will get 248 electoral votes, the president, 290. you can continue this conversation on facebook and on twitter. you can tell us who is going to win and why. we are live all day with campaign coverage as candidates continue to crisscross the country, including midafternoon,

a rally with the president in hollywood, florida. about 40% of the votes in pennsylvania are from the philadelphia area. one vote today from the pittsburgh area, showing the race in pennsylvania is a dead heat. about 96% of the vote in pennsylvania will be cast on election day. one of the reasons that both campaigns are spending a lot of money in pennsylvania is its 20 electoral votes. we will continue the conversation in just a couple of minutes. two pollsters will be with us to take a look at the wrong predictions, looking into the economy with a report from u.s. news and world report. there is only one topic, the campaign, and a lot of guests on these programs. nancy is keeping track of all that. good morning.

>> good morning to you, steve. that is the topic of five sunday shows today. seasick -- c-span radio rears them at noon, eastern, starting with "meet the press." david +, and eric cantor. at 1:00, "this week." another appearance by david plus, and ed gillespie. at 2:00, "fox news sunday." chris wallace sits down with david axelrod, the senior strategist of the obama campaign, and rich gleason. "state of the union" follows at 3:00 p.m., including rohm emmanuel, rob portman, haley dorf.ur, and steve element no at 4:00 "face the nation."

with david schieffer and robert lowry. the son they never talk shows, airing again on c-span radio, -- sunday network talk shows, airing again on c-span radio. they air at noon eastern on "meet the press." -- they air at noon eastern. you can listen to them all on c- span radio, 90.1 fm in the washington, d.c. area, nationwide on x and satellite 119 -- xm satellite 119, or a c- span.org go to -- a c-span.org rode to -- or go to c-span.org. [video clip] >> if allowing insurance companies to discriminate and

eliminate health care for millions who are elderly, disabled, and poor, i will not make that deal. i will fight against that deal. that is a price i am not willing to pay. that is not by partisanship, that is not change, that is surrendering to a status quo that has hurt too many american families. >> it is within the power of the american people to choose their own future. we know what they need to know. you can stay on the path of the last four years, or you can choose real change. you know that if the president is reelected, he will still be unable to work with the people in congress. he has ignored them, attack them, and blamed them. that ceiling will come up again. shutdown and default will come up again. the president was right when he said he could not change washington from the inside. in this case, taken at his word,

put him on the outside. >> tonight on c-span, live coverage of mitt romney and president obama. plus, your reactions by phone, e-mail, facebook, and twitter. look for live coverage beginning on c-span, c-span radio, and cease -- c-span.org. >> "washington journal" continues. host: our son the roundtable,, -- on our sunday roundtable, andrew baumann, ed goeas, thank you for being with us. pollsters, they say, this is the truth, it has always been equal parts art and science. guest: i do not know if i agree with that. it is more science and art, that

is why we are paid to do what we do, and we think they are generally pretty accurate. that is why you see polls from different sides of the aisle, some polls have been different results. i think that there is a little bit of hyperbole to call it four pollsters. maybe they are having the worst week. guest -- host of this poll shows mitt romney being ahead six points -- host: this poll shows mitt romney ahead by six points in florida, another one showing obama up by five points. [laughter] guest: same weekend? there are two polling firms out there, that there have been real questions about. going back to the point that andrew made, you have to make an assumption that some point. is turnout going to be like it

was in 2004? which was even between the parties? or will it be more like 2008, with seven points for the democrats? my preference is to look in between. but what the poll has been doing in particular is looking more at what it was in 2008, which political pollsters will tell you, it will not be at that point. it needs to be somewhere near where the republicans were in 2008. host: the annual crystal ball contest from "the washington post." jim cramer, predicting that mitt romney will get 98 electoral votes, the president, 440? he is the only one predicting a landslide for the president. guest: he is the only one predicting that. i am a democratic partisan, i would love to see that, but i do not think it will be close to that.

host: only two are predicting that mitt romney will win, the other 11 saying that barack obama will get a second term. guest: the perception of looking at these polls is very interesting. we released our own poll today with a different side between the candidates. there was an indication that it would lean towards mitt romney by a point or two, especially if they look at the model on the battleground. i think that the real question is, where is the electoral college going to go? everyone is making a guess at this point. ohio is up in the air, wisconsin is up in the air. certainly of those three, off three could go to mitt romney, off three to go to obama, that will be the difference in the electoral college.

guest: that is true, those three states will be making the difference. predictions are going to line up with what really looks like, which at this rate is that the popular vote is that even right now we have it dead even. the math works a lot better for barack obama than it does for mitt romney and he is more likely to wind up on top because he has small but consistent leads in those places. mitt romney, basically, he absolutely needs to win florida, absolutely needs to win virginia, then ohio and wisconsin and a couple of over states -- a couple of other states. he basically needs to get the inside straight. guest: that is where the intervals really make a difference. in every case, every poll, state after state, national polls, sympathy is still on the republican side. the interesting thing about the current polls is that it shows

the republicans have caught up in terms of turnout. our poll has 26% of democrats turning out, 26% of republicans turning out, followed closely by that but intensely, the republican side, which is where i put the edge in the other direction. host: it is almost as if president has a hub in ohio. ohio, florida, new hampshire. this morning from "the sunday morning -- sunday tribune review," from pittsburgh, pa., we know at 5:30 this afternoon, mitt romney will be outside philadelphia. his only appearance in the state before the election. what is going on in pennsylvania? guest of this is a real question about pennsylvania, -- guest:

this is the real question, pa., like lucy and the football getting pulled away at the last minute, data shows that there is more going on in pennsylvania than what you might think. normally in the suburbs it is a real battleground between the democrats and republicans. this year you are saying that the suburbs are leaning very heavily towards the republicans. you're saying the president is doing even better in the urban areas. the suburbs are really leaning in our direction. host: i am glad that mitt romney is wasting his time in -- guest: i am glad that mitt romney is wasting his time in pennsylvania. this poll, the susquehanna paul, up and down four or five points, if anything it shows movement towards a pet -- president.

i am not worried about pennsylvania. host: reuters put together a combination, here is the latest, taking a look at these battleground states. colorado, florida, virginia. the president is at 45%. florida, dead even. ohio, the president is up one. . in virginia, mitt romney is a 45%. andrew? guest: it president, being an underdog in florida, he remains a favorite in ohio. i was looking at the averages last night and right now the president is the average of 2.7% in ohio. that one margin is a little bit low, but he remains a favorite in ohio. if you look at those four states, we have ohio to obama and with a toss up in virginia.

host: colorado and florida to mitt romney? guest: i would agree with that. this is where we really get into the numbers. obama won ohio by five points last week in one poll, but the sample was not what was in 2008. if you do the average, that deficit becomes a one. advantage for mitt romney, or half of a point advantage. that is where there is a little bit of concern on the average between the poles in the states. i would think it should be more like the olympics. as opposed to these out liars. guest host some say that this shows too high of a democratic sample. -- guest: some say that this shows too high of a democratic sample. that we should not wait on

partisan ship unless there is an absolute example of what is correct for people that fit your polling can tell you what the partisanship should be. i think that 5 is a little bit high, i think the polls are telling us something. host: prediction time for you, andrew. what will the president get? what will mitt romney get? guest of the president wins with 54% of people -- of the popular vote. guest: i have mitt romney winning by 2% in the popular vote, 291 electoral votes in ohio and wisconsin. host: pennsylvania goes to? guest: democrats. host: good morning. caller: good morning. i am calling to find out, pretty much, how do you get your statistics through these polls? do you loot -- do you utilize

only land line, or cellular phone? guest: in our case, 25% of our surveys herself on. we do actually do random in terms of land line. guest: obviously this is a big issue for pollsters and it will only get bigger, to have an accurate poll you need sell funds. the bias is towards the conservative side when you use only land lines. host: when you look at these numbers in any election, do they tend to break for the challenger or the incumbent? caller: they used to have a role that it would break forth the challenger, that was the truth out through the early 1990's. that is no longer the case, most of the time now it is pretty even. host: why is that? caller: the landscape of

politics has changed, becoming more polarized, more negative. people are undecided, even though the have made up their minds. not like in the past, where they indicated they did not want to vote for the incumbent. they have people that frankly in their heart know where they are voting, but are not saying. host: your analysis? guest: they are only 74 percent son, colin to vote. -- going to vote. we do a model that gives a weighting to likely voters. you have to do that. if you are still undecided at

this point, are probably not going to voted in this election. host: jason says they do not sample anyone without a landline phone. guest: not true. host: on the republican line, welcome to "washington journal." caller: i would like to bring your attention to the scott walker election. the national media and the polls all had him losing and yet he won fame. if you take that into consideration -- the poles and

the way they pulled and the exact science -- polls and the way they polls, these polls are just no good with a fall on side a or side b. americans like to be treated fairly. they do not like to see somebody not being treated fairly. host: thank you. we will get a response. guest: we did a lot of work in the walker recall last year. we had it exactly on the margin was walker winning. there are outliers or things that happen. more often than not, polling is still accurate. we make sure we are calling cell phones and we are getting people who are going to come out to

vote. i believe the polling is an accurate science. host: the president concluded his stay in virginia. he begins his day in new hampshire and heads to florida and back to ohio and colorado. this indicates how small the playing ground is in these battleground states. an interesting historical note -- in 1960, john kennedy campaigned in 50 states and nixon campaigned in 60 states. these campaigns are concentrating on 10 states. guest: 9-11 tossup states or states that are in play depending on how you define it. since we have an electoral

college, that is the way the candidates go. host: on the democrats out west feeling lonely these days? guest: i am from oklahoma. even though it is being ignored, i think the electoral college is good for a small state. if one candidate wins the popular vote and 1 can they wins the electoral college, you will see a discussion -- candidate wins the electoral college, you will see a discussion about that. guest: you can only do that if you have non partisan redistricting. host: a professor at the naval academy at annapolis, maryland says this. the president has had 220

fundraisers for the obama victory fund. this is his campaign and the democratic national committee. george w. bush had 86 and deutsche herger walker bush had 24. ronald reagan had only three. guest: you have superpac money flooding in and $1 billion flooding into this campaign. the president did what he thought he'd need to do. host: will it change after this election? guest: if you look at how the campaigns are spending their money, there is not a lot of waste.

i thought all along that the best way is the ability to do instant reporting in today's society. you take away the curtain and bring it down to truly where this campaign is. all of the money into the campaign. do away with superpacs and have no ceiling on individual contributions and let the people see exactly what is happening. if there is a george soros -- on the republican side, i cannot know who we could mention -- but the candidate takes the heat. guest: the koch brothers would be mentioned. they need to take the money out of the process so candidates can spend their time focusing on the people's business.

host: the washington post pointed out that karl rove has not had success predicting outcomes. he says a chemical race leaves no mandate. nobody who claims -- a timid race leaves no mandate. this has been a humbling election for people who follow politics. we have filled, hours of airtime to cover the politics of the past six months. we are essentially where it all began. it is a dead heat. the guest: i would agree completely. if you look at the internal again on the voters that are left out there, it would put the eggs to romney. -- edge to romney. at one point of this campaign, i thought there would be one of

three scenarios. i thought obama wins or romney wins or a close race in the an end. host: hurricane sandy -- does that help or hurt the president? people are complaining that the response has not been quick enough. guest: if held to be president a little bit. -- ti -- it helped the president a little bit. the cake is still bake. there are not a lot of undecided voters. i do not think it changed anything. host: rick is on the line from

massachusetts on the independent line. good morning. caller: i think all poles are an absolute joke. it depends on -- polls are an absolute joke. the questions posed are going to be toward the end of achieving the goal of the pollster. it depends on how the question is asked. the answer can be spun in the way he wants. the university of boulder has actual numbers as opposed to opinion. i do not give my opinion to the pollsters because i do not know how they are going to skew them. host: can you give us your opinion?

who you think is going to win? caller: i believe it is going to be mitt romney. all the jobs the president wants to create art taxpayer funded. he does that answer the question -- are taxpayer funded. and the $1.30 trillion deficit. host: who you vote 4 in 2008? caller: by voted -- vote for in 2008? caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients.

we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of controlling on party. they do not control for party. you have seen in a short period of time, party edification jumping a good chance " -- 10 points. you are generating a story rather than generating reality in terms of polling. all of the polls start coming back to the center. that is with the averaging does work. as you get closer to the election, surveys have a new

ones because of the weighting on party. in 2008, we ended up with five poles that were exactly the same -- polls that were exactly the same. guest: has citizen united affected the outcome? absolutely. it has made it a lot more difficult for president obama. for a state like virginia and colorado, they might have gone the other way. in the senate races, a lot of money from those groups. the democrats have not been able to match. you will see seven house seats that will go to the republicans that may not have gone to them in the past. host: it is pointed out that in

congress, despite record levels disapproving of the institution, democrats are expected to gain seats in the house, but not the 25 needed to recapture the majority. in the senate, democrats hold a 53-47 majority. more senate races are considered too close to call. the democrats are in a position to maintain their majority. guest: i think that is exactly right. if you had asked me one year ago, i would have said the chance of the democrats holding the senate would be slim. you will see a lot of things break for democrats to win. elizabeth warren has opened up a lead in massachusetts. the race in arizona was not

supposed to be close and now is a tossup. democrats remain at 53 and they might gain 54. they are likely to hold the majority. in the house, there will be little change. they do not come close to winning the majority, unfortunately. guest: the house will be a net gain of a handful. for the democrats in terms of a gain, but nowhere close to what they need to take control of the house. host: and in the senate? guest: what has not been reported is that we got approval of congress is different from the job approval of individual congressmen. in terms of romney, you would have seen all of these close races go republican. now everyone is out for their own selves. there could be a net gain for

republicans win a few of these races come through. if i were to call it today, i would say it is even or slightly democrat. host: there is always one surprise race. give me one state, one race we will be talking about wednesday morning when you say, we did not see that coming. guest: if there is one that will come out of the blue it will be bob kerry winning in the basket. -- in nebraska. you saw chuck hagel embrace -- endorse him. that could be one that comes out of nowhere. guest: pennsylvania will be a surprise on the republican side. i do not expect the presidential

race to go in romney's direction. in the senate race, i can see the republican easily win. host: from south carolina on the democrats' line. caller: hi. i am concerned about the experimental software that has been loaded and half of the counties in ohio. i worked as a systems analyst. it would be so easy to have something that would go in and slip votes to where they wanted it to be and you raise any evidence of having been there. i feel 100% that obama would win in a fair election, i am concerns about whether there will be a fair election. host: thank you for the call. every two or four years, we get these calls.

what is the process? how are votes tabulated and how are they check and cross checked? guest: from everything i have seen, the civil servants in these states take their jobs seriously. they have a whole bunch of double checks to make sure things like this do not happen. there has been an effort, mostly from the republican side of the aisle to pass restrictive laws to disenfranchise a lot of eligible voters, mostly minorities in states like ohio and pennsylvania, where you have the republican speaker of the house admit that their voter id law was meant to defeat president obama. that definitely could have an impact. i am not worried about anybody stealing the election. i am were about in a close race, people who should be able to voted not being able to vote.

host: speaking of close votes. this comes from one of our viewers. do not waste your vote, go for virgil. gary johnson is on the ballot. what role will third-party candidates have in close states in close races? guest: there was some concern early in virginia in terms of what the impact would be there. what you normally see, unless there is a strong campaign out there, you see about 1% of the total vote being split up between these candidates. that could make a difference in some of these close states. it is hard to predict. you are not getting enough in your sample. guest: i agree. it is tough to predict. we are seeing gary johnson get a little bit more earlier. mexico is a state that had been

close. he was a governor there and that could have been close. host: a lot of you calling in on the election tabulation. we will be focusing on this tomorrow morning on "washington journal." we will be talking with the legal director with the lawyer's committee. we will talk about how the votes are tabulated and how they are checked and cross check. the national journal has this on its recent cover. republicans need more of these, minorities. democrats need more of these, white males and white females. guest: you are seeing a split between the two parties. it is not a split between whites and people of color can it is a split between married and single. it is a split between secular and faith based. that is a trend we have seen

for two decades now. host: mary from massachusetts -- kevin from massachusetts. go ahead. caller: a.c.o.r.n., which will not a factor in this election -- what was the impact of fraud by that organization. romney will not be inaugurated until january. if obama wins, we will have gridlock again. how do we get around this debt ceiling thing? host: i do not know if we are not going to have -- guest: i do not know if we are

not going to have gridlock either way. we have 53-47 republican or 53- 47 democrat, the bottom line is as long as they have the filibuster roles were it takes 60% to move something through, they are the most dysfunctional part of our government. it is not going to be corrected in this election. in terms of the economic clife -- cliff we have, i would hope that it will be dealt with no matter who wins. it is sitting there like a huge elephant in the room. it will have to be dealt with immediately after this election. host: is title story is called trouble ahead. -- this title story is called trouble ahead. the author says, the matter who wins, and give them the benefit

of the doubt and let's work together. the think there will be a more bipartisan atmosphere? test and i would like to think so. -- antasy is the with guest: i would like to think so. i will not say the problem has been on the republican side. the tea party has taken control. you see good senators like lugar and hagel been beaten. you do not have moderate republicans. there were meetings between republicans before president obama was inaugurated saying they would not work with them. hopefully, you will see people

from both parties work together more. the fiscal cliff into a big problem. if we cannot do anything, we will hurt the economy. both parties will get together to do something. i have too much faith in them. host: the cost of this campaign was $5.40 billion in 2008. it is $6 billion when you combine the present campaign, the 34 u.s. senate races and the 34 races for the house of representatives. the present at 186 electoral college votes. 57 leaving. mitt romney has 36 states that lane mitt romney and 170 mitt romney electoral -- lean mitt romney and 170 mitt romney electoral votes.

caller: question on the table is who we think is going to win and why. i believe president obama will be reelected. the tipping point will be the auto bailout. those people in ohio and michigan -- right now, the zero -- the economy in ohio and michigan and i spend a lot of time in wisconsin -- they will be voting for obama because of that bailout. romney can pick up the democratic states, north carolina and florida. obama could lose the popular vote due to an increased amount of republican turnout this year and the effects of sandy and the northeast. it could hurt democratic turnout there. i saw police see -- i solidly

see an obama victory. host: the washington post is writing about myths about the electoral college. guest: the caller was right. states like new jersey and new york will not affect the electoral college. president obama win those. huge numbers for running in the south. there is a chance for an electoral college-popular vote split. host: who are you pulling for now? guest: in the senate races, we are in michigan, wisconsin, nevada, the governor's race in new hampshire.

we do 75 congressional races. we started off with 53 incumbents going into this election. we do some polling for the romney campaign. host: what is happening for the wisconsin senate race? guest: i did some polling for scott walker. we have it right in terms of polling as opposed to what you are seeing in the public polling. we have a net edge presidentially and in the senate race going for tom thompson in that senate race. what we are seeing their we are seeing in all of the campaigns. we have closed the gaps -- there we are seeing in all of the campaigns. we have closed the gaps that democrats have in those states. guest: we see a much more

partisan atmosphere than in 2008. the democrat in wisconsin has a slight lead. that will the west that will be a close race on election day. -- that will be a close race on election day. wisconsin is a little bit closer than it has been before. in the end, obama wins that state by two or three points. host: i want to put on the screen what is happening in colorado, alabama, north carolina. the number of votes cast as of yesterday, in colorado, 1.5 million votes cast. 35% for democrats, 37% republicans.

in iowa, just over 500,000 cast. 43% democratic and 32% republican. guest: you are seeing a shift. same thing for florida. the last election, they had almost 810 point advantage in terms of the early vote. -- almost a 10. advantage in terms of the early vote. -- 10 point advantage in terms of the early vote. all of the big state white papers for mitt romney changed the dynamic and tipped it in

the direction of romney. host: the other states are nevada, north carolina, and ohio. in nevada, 627,000 early votes castle far. for democrats, 48% and four republicans, 32%. in ohio, 1.3 million early votes cast. 29% for the democrats and 23% for republicans. guest: ohio is hard to judge. you need to look more at demographics and area rather than partisanship. colorado is looking pretty decent for the republicans. north carolina is looking decent for the republicans. iowa is looking good for the democrats. ohio is looking good for the democrats.

people on both sides are saying nevada is off of the table. it looks like it will go for obama. i would disagree with what you said about the impact of the des moines register. there was a poll that came out that said obama was up 55 in iowa. colorado is looking better for the republicans. host: why don't we forget the election and use being -- the polls instead? [laughter] guest: the democrats always have a much higher turnout in the early vote. their machine turns it out. one of the things we have seen among the democrats is that they have been trying to pump the

numbers to play the game of who is winning and who is losing where the strategy for republicans is weak turnout the votes for people who are -- we turn out the votes for people who are least likely to vote. voters who have voted in the last four elections will vote in this election. republicans have a 355,000 vote lead in terms of four 5 four voters -- four by four voters. we are looking at better numbers than we have had. guest: if this were 2010, you would have a great point. in the last two elections, 90% of registered voters voted on

election day. intensity does not matter as much in a presidential election as it matters now. republicans always do better with four by four voters. that is what happened in 2010. the obama people know what they are doing. they will not waste money who are not going to attend. they are targeting people who are less likely to vote. there are a lot of people who cannot vote in the last elections. host: 30,000 people at a campaign rally for mitt romney in columbus, ohio, which we covered on the c-span network. it is all about ohio, ohio, ohio. this is fun -- from the sun. when her post. -- thisate holds its-

is from the sunday and her post. swing state holds its sway. caller: if i can get these two gentlemen to take off their name tags for one moment and answer the question. if the republicans had worked with president obama, with the situation we are in now be the same? guest: our argument about the partisanship is that the bottom line is that obama had overwhelming control in the house and senate in the first two years of his presidency. he got some of the things through that he wanted. there were several things i did not work like the stimulus package. there are also many things that he is saying, i will do, that he

did not get done when he could do it. i think taking the name ted off -- i think, taking the name tag off, i think this country is split between democrats and republicans. we believe the country is 43% democrat and 40% republican. what you see happening in washington actually reflects the american public. what that means for the next president whether it is barack obama or mitt romney is that they are going to have to go after moving the american public, not to go after moving congress. that will be key to dealing with some of the big problems we are facing. >> i think you are right that the public is split. i do not think the republicans in congress are reflective of republican voters. when you have every single

republican candidates say they would not take a deal that was 10 times the spending cuts with one times the tax revenue. a plurality says tax increases must be part of the death as a solution. host: what are the independent numbers? guest: most of the public polls have the independent voters leading romney. we had them leaning seven or 8 points in the direction of mitt romney. most of the public polls as we have been showing the race getting closer, many of the independents have voted at a higher margin.

guest: i think the republican block -- the independent bloc is a lot more republican leaning that it was in 2008. there are republicans identified as independents and voting as a republican. the republican -- the independents are leading romney. host: the most expensive campaign in the country is in virginia. frank is on the phone from fort lauderdale, florida. good morning, frank. caller: good morning. what disturbs me about president obama's rhetoric is that he refers to that if romney is

elected, we will go back to the policies that got us into trouble in the first place. the fact is, that was a democratic legislature about deregulating the mortgage industry that said you do not have to have been more downpayments and you do not have to verify employment. i talked -- mortgage industry that said you do not have to have downpayments and you do not have to verify employment. it is unfair for the president to misrepresent the facts. that disturbs me greatly. i am a former democrat, but this year i will be voting mitt romney and the republican ticket. host: thank you for the call. guest: i do not accept the premise of that on what the president has said. mr. romney's economic policies by exactly the same of george w. bush's economic policies.

they are the same republican economic policies we have had for the last 25 years. it is hard to argue that george bush's policies were and economic failure. they deregulated wall street and let us into the financial crisis. you see that in all our polls. we ask who you blame for the current economic situation? is still blame bush. guest: this is where there has been a lot of misinformation out there. president bush respecting the office by taking the blame and not looking for someone else to blame, which is the opposite of what president obama has done this entire time. the color is exactly right. at the time bush took office -- the caller is exactly right. at the time bush took office, we

had a lot of national debt. without pointing fingers in terms of what the caller is talking about, the root problem of what brought our economy to where it was was long planted in the policies of the democrats in fannie mae and freddie mac and trying to transfer those government loans into the private sector. if you look at the economy today in talking about policies, the voters are respectful to the romney. he is winning on the economy, spending, jobs, and winning on getting something done. that will make a difference in this election. guest: romney has had a small bench -- edge in terms of the

economy. he has hung his hat on the fact that he is a businessman. he is losing on foreign-policy and who cares about the middle class, places where obama has large advantages. romney needs to win by more than he is on the economy to win this election. over the last four or five months, there has been an uptick in people say the country is headed in the right direction. it has gone from its 20's to 40%. we see more than half of the public saying the economy is improving. host: i want to put two issues on the table. how damaging was that video where mitt romney talked about the 40 percent -- 47% to the campaign and its narrative? guest: if you look at the numbers, it may have stalled for

a period of time. was it a driving force? no, it was not a driving force. guest: as the 47% happened, i was feeling good about obama winning pretty handily. he did poorly in the first debate. romney did well and going into that, voters believed mitt romney was the 47% mitt romney. host: this morning, the new york times said, still waiting for the narrator in chief. if obama manages to lose an election that seems well within his grasp a few months ago, it will pain democrats for years to come. the answers can be traced back to those first overwhelming

months after the 2008 election. remember that john mccain's most effective line of attack against obama during the campaign was that he was more of a motivational speaker and then a leader. the president's advisers were wary of too much speechifying. todd akin in missouri and richard mourdock? what does the pulling st.? history and they are both going to -- what does the polling say? guest: they are both going to lose. host: a caller on the democratic

line. caller: obama will not be holding to the superpacs. money will be a pressure on rounding during his first term -- on romney during his first term. guest: president obama will not have to worry about reelection so he will not have to worry about raising money for anybody. i do not really think mitt romney's policies are due to superpac money. he believes in what he believes in. i just believes he is wrong. guest: he believes in what he believes and i would not agree with what he says is wrong. host: what about voter turn out? will it be 60% overall turnout across the country? guest: overall, the best way to

track it is the adults aged population, the voting population. -- adult aged population, the voting population. host: -- guest: the idea that there was a surge of voters for barack obama in 2008 is not true. you will see similar numbers. host: the house of representatives on november 7 will be controlled by republicans. the surprise of the night in the senate race will be -- guest: nebraska. host: the president will get how many electoral votes? guest: 294.

host: surprise election of the ninth potentially in the senate -- the house? nevguest: nevada. host: when the polls are coming in, what are you keeping an eye on? best ben west virginia, florida, ohio. watch west virginia, florida, ohio. guest: i am not familiar with the state of iowa. guest: i would focus on the data. -- nevada.

in ohio, the thing to watch is how big the market is coming out of cincinnati. host: here is the final question of the morning. will we know who was the next president on november 6 for november 7? guest: much more doubtful today that it was one week ago. a lot depends on what happens in ohio and with the provisional balance. we will have to watch and see. the provisional ballots are more than the margin in ohio. we could be sitting here the day after or weeks after 13 who won the election. host: gentlemen, thank you. a full day of politics here on c-span. let's go through the schedule beginning with our live coverage. vice president joe biden in

lakewood, ohio. this afternoon, we moved to virginia where tag romney -- tagg romney will be joined by governor bob mcdonnell. covers getting under way at -- underway at 2:15 p.m. eastern. live coverage here on c-span. in pennsylvania, mitt romney will be campaigning outside of philadelphia. 47% of the pennsylvania vote comes from the greater philadelphia area. during the course of the day, our phone lines will be open. we want to hear from you as we continue our campaign coverage leading up to tuesday.

we will focus on religion and politics. this weekend on c-span on book tv and american history tv, history and literary life in vermont's capital city with a population of 8000. it is the smallest u.s. state capitol. we will feature all of the capital -- state capital's history programming. >> the largest room in the state house by far. a remarkable place. it has all of its original furniture. it makes it easy for us as a result to see this chamber as it was at the outbreak of the civil war when the governor stood at

this podium had and exhorted vermonters to save the union by volunteering for the forces that were sent beyond the state to try to help lincoln keep the union together. this room resonates with that period and the time when this nation was plunged into that catastrophic war. 150 years later, this became the scene of a battle over the civil rights of homosexuals when gay marriage came to the forefront in vermont. first as a battle over civil unions and eventually for full marriage equality. much of the fractious in mgm vault in legislative bodies --

energy involved in legislative bodies took place in the state house. legislators crowded into the building and passionate speeches were definitely heard. host: all weekend long on book tv and american history tv, we will take you to for lot's capital, the -- vermont's capital, the nation's smallest state capitol. we will talk about the economy and the key swing states. thank you for being with us. let's begin with ohio. there is so much attention on the national unemployment rate. it is lower in ohio that in nevada.

discuss the dichotomy between these two states and their role in this election. guest: as of september, the ohio unemployment is 7% as of september. lower than the 7.8% that we have nationally that month. they have seen some of the most consistent job improvement. it was 8.6% a year ago. i think that is huge. that bodews well -- bodes well for president obama. manufacturing is a blessing and a curse. manufacturing lost 2.5 million jobs during the recession. it has been on a secular

decline. manufacturing is starting to bounce back. nevada is one of the worst states for housing. nevada and florida. host: 61.2% of all nevada mortgages are underwater. nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. they moved from 14% to a 11.8%. still fantastically high. one reason -- they moved from 14% to 11.8% host: virginia has one of the lowest unemployment rates.

if you believe the polls, they think mitt romney might win virginia. barack obama mike win of nevada, where the unemployment rate is much higher. -- might win nevada, where the unemployment rate is much higher. guest: there are complicated reasons for that. virginia has seen quite a bit of uncertainty lazy. with the fiscal cliff, are a lot of government workers who live in virginia. with the potential spending cuts and defense cuts coming, it is making employers shaky about hiring. host: if you look at manufacturing in pennsylvania, it mirrors ohio in terms of the employment rate. have you looked at that states?

guest: the unemployment rate has not moved a lot. that could be one reason why voters are still trying to decide who to votes 4. right now it is -- that could be one reason why voters are still trying decide who to vote for. construction is still very slow there. host: our focus on the -- is the battle ground states and how the economy is playing out in the states that will determine whether the president is reelected or whether mitt romney is elected as our 45th president. you can join us on our twitter page or send us an e-mail. over the weekend, some new web videos, looting this from the

obama campaign. [video clip] >> if obama doesn't win and i did not help, i could not live with myself. >> we have to do it. >> if you are willing to stick with me, if you are willing to fight with me, and press on with me, if you are willing to work even harder in this election than you did in the last election, we will move this country forward. we will finish what we started. we are still fired up. we are still ready to go. we are going to remind the world why it is that the united states of america is the greatest nation on earth. thank you. god bless you. god bless the united states of america.

host: that web video parts of the final push from the obama campaign -- part of the final push from the obama campaign. a mitt romney video based on what the president said the other night. [video clip] >> did you hear what the president said last night? he said joe vote f-- go vote for revenge. >> don't boo. vote. host: these ads just part of the narrative for the end of the

campaign. when you see these ads and you look at the economy, how does all this come together collectively for each campaign? guest: colorado voters tend to view the economy is on two levels. they see it on the national level -- voters tend to view the economy on two levels. they see it on the national level and they see it on the state level. they hear things are getting better. some of these voters in las vegas and miami might not be feeling that. that would make voters question how much the recovery has taken hold.

host: the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% in the september report and went up to 7.9% in the october report. here is the breakdown. then 7.3%. women 7.2%. teenagers 23.7%. 10% among hispanics. guest: you have to notice that african-americans and young voters and hispanics -- those are constituencies that tend to favor president obama. it is not just a question of whether the unemployment rate is high or low. amongst teenagers, the younger constituency have been hit hard by this recession. it means a lot of future problems. from what i have been reason, it has made them question who they

will be voting for. host: our guest is with u.s. news and world report. jackie is on the phone from detroit on the democrats line. caller: how are you doing today? guest good. thank you. caller: i am a democrat. i work in the construction field. before obama took office, the construction field was flat. now it is starting to rebound. at one particular time, i was receiving food stamps. now i am not. i feel that people are not paid attention to what is going on. i think the nation needs to realize that we have to rebuild here at home.

swing states, new york, west virginia, connecticut -- that is where we need to spend our money. host: thanks for the call. guest: it is good to hear from guest: housing has been such a dragon and a headwind on the recovery. have been recovering slightly and now it has, as the caller noted. he is certainly right in terms in being able to recognize that. construction workers are starting barely to get their jobs back. that's very important and it will lead the way. host: our guest studied at george washington here in d.c. from south carolina on the republican line, good morning. we're poulticing on swing states and the economy.

caller: could you think will win ohio and by what margin? host: you may not want to go that way, but if you want to? guest: a focus on the economy and business. i do not presume to predict who can win ohio. if you are talking swiftly in terms of how the economy is going, if i had to venture a guess, ohio will hurt obama in the 10's that -- it tends to favor obama. host: pensacola, florida, good morning. caller: it morning. the people in this country need to stop and open their eyes. my husband had an opportunity to

have blood work at the barn and when he sat there waiting to be called to verify an insurance, which he had a a primary and secondary, there were several other people, nine, that had medicare and medicaid. what's going to happen to these elderly people who do not have any type of medical coverage or those who have not minimal coverage dock? this is something mitt romney has said he will stop. this is something that has to stop. we have to take care of our own people. regardless of race, color, or creed. we have to stop this. host: they do for the call,

marie. -- thank you for the call. guest: one of the big issues in this election is hearing from what they think are going to be the biggest issues of the next four years. whoever is president could very easily and likely could have an economy on the upswing but dealing with entitlements and getting the deficit under control is really going to be the biggest issue. getting the deficit under control could potentially be a little bit of a drag on the economy if you have to have people paying higher taxes, government spending cuts, which it seems we will. that will make things a little bit tougher. however, i should probably point out that getting the seniors in the system will add even more health-care jobs. it has been very strong through the recovery. host: 100,000 plus jobs growth

is not recovery. that is just treading water. you have to also keep in county population trends which are increasing. guest: has been bandied about what exactly is job growth. 130,000 is about treading water, keeping up with growth. where the rate comes from is the household survey. the reported adding 170,000 jobs in october but it was far more when you add in asking people if they're working or not and it contributes to the entries. it will be interesting. host: from evergreen, call rod know, good morning. welcome to the program. -- evergreen, colorado. caller: thank you for having me

on the program. these people are only getting paid half of what they used to get paid. it's terrible. you guys are talking this up like we created all of these jobs, but the money being paid out is zilch. it's killing us as a nation. we need to stop all these regulations, get rid of the epa, and we need to get this country going forward again. the vote for romney. thank you. guest: he has an excellent point, the idea of low-paying jobs being the only one created. there was a study from the national bureau of economic research about reinforce this. they call it job polarization. low-skilled, low-paying jobs coming back. those little wage jobs are really not in this recovery. the caller is right that it seems to be hurting people and wages are not increasing the way

they should be. host: is this the slowest economy on record? is the stimulus plan a failure on a cost-benefit analysis? guest: looking in the past year recoveries, it has been remarkably slow. to be honest, i'm not sure how it compares. the other recessions since then, yes. in terms of jobs, this has been really slow. i would say -- what was the second part of the question? host: the stimulus plan. guest: it created a big spike in jobs. many economists, non-partisan economists, are leading the charge here is saying it the stimulus had not gone through that the economy would have gone much lower so that is one very prominent opinion on that.

host: romney wants to deregulate banks and expand the military's spending. sound familiar? guest: the regulating banks is one of the most interesting things that has happened. dodd-frank has not entirely been implemented yet. it's something to watch in the coming years. the financial sector was instrumental in creating the economic crisis and now we're trying to keep that from happening again but now it will does pop up in another place. host: a regular tweeter. nadine, west palm beach, florida. caller: what you think the

definition of fundamentally changing america is? after seeing the movie "2016," i see that president obama, he is a wonderful family man with great ideas, but he has a world view and not an american of you. losing country, we're what our founding was about and i really feel like people need to see this movie to see at what his world view is. it really opened my eyes to why he has made a lot of the decisions he has made, getting rid of nuclear power, bringing us down in the world as far as our own energy independence, wind, solar. we saw how solyndra went bankrupt. we're sitting on some of the highest oil reserves here in america. coal companies are being shut down. 300 will be shut down in west virginia and pennsylvania about will have a really big effect on people's livelihood.

host: thank you for the call from south florida. guest: she mentioned mining, oil and gas. mining and logging has bounced back much better than it did from the recession days. it's coming back strong. energy seems to be driving a lot of the jobs in this recovery. in terms of energy independence, whether the u.s. can supply more of its own energy, in terms of obama world view and fundamental changes to the economy, economically speaking, the fundamentals have really not changed. we look at manufacturing, the auto industry. they are not the bedrock of the u.s. economy any more. fundamental shifts in that sense are happening a matter who is

president. host: another question about ohio with its 18 electoral votes. the president won ohio four years ago and no republican has won the presidency without also winning ohio indicating how important the state is. from one of our viewers. guest: that is a very good point and something to bear in mind. it is certainly faulty logic to point to any single leader to say this person, this governor, this senator, this president made the economy better. it is not all just politics either. it is the business people in ohio as well. the economy is improving and i would venture a guess that it favors the incumbents slightly.

host: 1 you were saying that president obama has "not got rid of any nuclear power plants. the caller is misinformed. in seattle, washington. you are up early. good morning. caller: good morning. thank you for your program. we are on the right track for a steady, slow recovery. if you compare that to where we were four years ago, we were in a disaster. keep the train going. we are on the right track. let's get these jobs back here where we are supposed to be and president obama is going to make that happen. host: that has been the message over these last few hours of the campaign. guest: when obama took office, you are a lot of talks about the

campaign about how the unemployment rate was higher when he took office, and that is true. how to look at where the economy has gone. the economy was in a freefall. jobs hit a trough and started growing again. host: the president is back there today showing just how important it is for the obama campaign. unemployment is at about the national average. the president won colorado by nine percentage points. guest: they did not seem to have many of the headwinds in housing. they have been spared the brunt of that. once again, we talked trajectory and where employment rates are going. it has not budged a whole lot over the last year. kelly declined 0.2% from one

year ago. -- it only declined 0.2%. if people are not feeling the economy getting better, i wonder about will sway how they will vote. host: wisconsin could be the tightest senate and presidential race on tuesday night. there are 10 electoral votes key to both campaigns. the unemployment rates are below the national average and the president winning the badger state by nearly 40 beset signed and now it is a dead heat. what's going on economically in wisconsin? guest: economically, construction is still tumbling. even though you have a lot of those midwestern states that were spared the worst of the housing crisis, the sector is still hurting.

that is one problem there. the leisure industry is also shedding jobs. yes, they have lower unemployment, but it as low but still elevated. it cannot really improving very quickly right now. all right and hails from wisconsin, as the wall map, and that will weigh on people's decision does well. host: will swing states have a split ticket, voting for a democratic president and a republican senator? guest: an interesting question. i see no reason why that may not happen. i am no expert on the politics of it, but with an economy as messy as this one, people will vote whoever presents the best economic message. host: talking about jobs and the

economy. from apollo, pa., good morning. caller: john smith in pennsylvania and mourdock whoever you throw out there. we cannot afford the bailout of gm. i don't care what they say. we had to subsidize the union job. they could not run on their own and they could not afford what they were providing. so they bailed them out with my tax money. this whole situation needs to turn around. we need hr 429. we need senators headed by rand

paul to get this passed. the gao has no authority. if you look in their books, why do we not go after them? guest: she brings up one of the most fascinating topics. the federal reserve and what they're doing. qe3 in this open-ended support of the industry, it has been the most fascinating point. it could create inflation but it could also create a recovery. there is reason to watch a that in the coming years, how well the policy works and how well they wind down?

host: looking now at what the president will phase in its second term or a romney administration, what is the number one thing? guest: the deficit. the fundamentals are coming back. where you attribute that to, that's another thing. people are spending money again and this is despite heavy headwinds. this is very of purging and it's good to not lose sight of that. this is really going to be the thing that either president has to deal with the and it will not be easy. host: danielle kurtzleben, economics and business reporter for u.s. news & world report. usnews.com. thank you for stopping by. we continue with a full day of politics on c-span.

later really the day, live coverage of the president and governor romney as they campaign in florida. the president will be there and then romney traveling to pennsylvania hoping to but that state in place for the republicans. coming up next, turning our attention to religion and politics. we will be joined by greg smith with the key research center. first, nancy keeping track of the sunday morning programs that can be heard only on c-span radio, xm 119. >> beginning at noon eastern thomas e. spier radios three years the five network tv talk shows beginning with "meet the press." -- c-span radio reairs the network shows. david plouffe and ed gillespie.

at 2:00 p.m., chris wallace sitting down with david axelrod, obama campaign. strategist and then the political adviser for the romney campaign. "state of the union" welcoming chicago democratic mayor rahm emmanuel, haley barbour, and democratic strategist steve almendorff. "face the nation" with bob schieffer. the someday network talk shows a rehearing on c-span radio brought to you as a public service. they begin at noon eastern with "meet the press," of the union" and then

"face of the nation." 90.1 fm in d.c. area, xm 119, on your blackberry, android, or iphone. visit cspanradio.org. [video clip] >> why would they want to assassinate william henry eward? >> in the events of the death of the president and vice president, the secretary of state was tasked with organizing an election. i don't think so. booth was not a lawyer. he was an actor, a shakespearean actor who played julius caesar

park for them for words. -- played him forwards and backwards. he viewed seward as a co- tyrrant. >> more about the leader of lincoln's team of but rivals with biographer walter stahr on "q&a."'s host: we turn our attention to religion and politics. we want to welcome greg smith, senior researcher for pew research center's forum on religion & public life. thank you for being with us. i want to share with you this full-page ad in a number of leading newspapers including "the washington post" and "the examiner." "vote biblical values."

guest: that's a very interesting statement. i think part of what you see there is the appeal that republicans have made it to the evangelical voters. evangelical protestants have been among the strongest republican supporters in the electorate for many years now. we continue to see that. three-quarters of evangelical protestants say they will vote for governor romney for president. that may come as something of a surprise. there are many to wonder romney's face, -- faith, mormonism, may be a turn off.

it does not seem to be the case so far. host: in this full-page ad, he does not say vote for romney, but it's obvious. will this sway any undecided voters? guest: it's hard to say. the appeal would be to evangelical protestants and many of them are already in his corner. they are in many ways the core constituency of the republican party. from that standpoint, it's hard to know what impact may have. host: this is from "the new york times." 44% of the electorate in north carolina is considered to be evangelical. guest: there likely to play a major role in determining the

outcome of the election. certainly in the south, n.c., they are a very large constituency. in states like ohio and others, they play an important role but you also have catholics playing an important role. host: be looking for in terms of turnout and the role of the religious, evangelical, catholic, protestant votes? guest: patterns have come to fruition in recent election than they seem to be persisting so far in this campaign. some constituencies were terribly republican and remain that way. other religious constituencies are of the other end of the political spectrum. if you think about black protestants, hispanic catholics, and religiously affiliated, atheists, agnostics, those

groups are strongly democratic. then you have other groups in the middle and were evenly divided. we often think of them as swing groups. host: is there a swing religious block in this election? guest: catholics are often went into is the key swing constituency and there is good reason of for that. they are a very large groups, about 25% of the electorate in recent years and have been closely divided. direction.in obama's they are often pointed to as an important swing group. if you did just below the surface, it can be a little misleading to think of them as i block out all. most of them fall into various subgroups that are either clear the republican or clearly

democratic. yet many white conservative catholics, hispanic catholics, other minority catholics, white liberal catholics. it is a smaller group of the moderates that are evenly divided incapable of swinging back and forth from one party to the other. host: here is a story we found yesterday available from the associated press. the illinois bishops criticizing the president warned voters of what he calls "a great sin."

is this unusual to have a catholic bishop coming out telling parishioners how to vote? guest: i do not know how strange it is from a bishop in struck in them to read letters. it is not unusual to have them talking about politics from the pulpit. half of churchgoers say they have heard from their clergy the importance of voting. when it comes to political issues, many people are hearing about things like abortion and, religious liberty. six in 10 catholics say they have talked about abortion in the recent months in the course of the election. one-third of catholics said have heard their clergy talk about religious liberty.

these are common topics of discussion leading up to the election. host: here are some of your numbers. is what you have heard from the clergy more supportive of the president, romney or either? explain what these numbers mean. guest: many churchgoers secure about religious issues from the pulpit in many sit there clergy talk to them about the importance of voting, it's much less common for them to say there clergy have really come out in favor of one candidate or the other. seven in tennessee their clergy has not favored one candidate over another. among those whose clergy have come out or have implied support for one or the other candidate,

we are seeing some really important racial divisions. black protestants overwhelmingly say their clergy support obama. in our polling, there were no black protestants that we spoke with an indicated their clergy were supporting it mitt romney. clearly, there are more in favor of obama. white evangelicals and white catholics, fewer of them are hearing about this from their clergy. the balance is certainly in favor of romney. host: contraceptives issue and don't ask, don't tell. when it comes to your research, -- explain.

guest: churchgoers from all religious backgrounds overwhelmingly say they have heard their clergy speak about hundred and poverty. that seems to be a universal concern for people across various religious denominations. when it comes to other political issues that are commonly discussed, we see someone portend differences. catholics, more than other groups, are hearing about abortion. six in 10 say they have discussed abortion from the pulpit. when it comes to homosexuality, that seems to be a concern for white evangelicals and black protestants. for in 10 of both groups say they have heard their clergy talk about that issue. religious liberty is something that comes up for various groups but more common among catholics. host: for the first time, we do not have a protestant on the ticket for either the republican or democrat.

we have two catholics, vice- president joe biden and paul ryan. we have a mormon, mitt romney, and barack obama but who attends church right down the street from the white house but it tends baptist churches as well in just calls himself a christian. guest: he may be thought of as a protestant. the united church of christ is a protestant denomination. certainly, having both parties with a catholic vice- presidential nominee is unprecedented. mitt romney's marcionism -- mormonism is unprecedented in american presidential history. host: the highest polish catholic population is in chicago. do you think the directive does

not matter? your response. guest: it's hard to know how much the bishop's statement will matter. they take a variety of concerns into consideration with them to the polls. they are not unified. they do not vote as a bloc. catholics do not always march in lockstep with the bishops or the church whether we are talking about various social and political issues or presidential campaigns. even though the church is strongly opposed to abortion, many support legal abortion even though the church is supposed to same-sex marriage, half say they favor it. it's important to keep in mind that we cannot always the sonoma that all catholics agree with the official teachings of the church. host: there are a key senate races in missouri and indiana.

is there a chance that the views of todd aikin and mourdouck coud cost the gop chance to take the senate? guest: i do not know much about the religious believers in those states, but in general when it comes to abortion or, most americans, a slim majority, they say abortion should be legal in most or all cases and that would include cases of rape and incest. it is a relatively small percentage of the electorate who say they think abortion should be against the law in all cases. host: conn., steve, on the independent line for greg smith from the pure research center. -- pew research center. caller: i consider pew one of the premier web sites for polling. it's a great organization in my

opinion. my question is about trend lines in the future. i see republicans becoming the party of the religious and the democrats becoming the party of the nonreligious. or people in new england to do not like to mix their politics and religion. what do you see in the future of the face of the parties? guest: first, thank you for the kind words. i appreciate that very much. looking ahead, you are onto something. when it comes to the republican party and republican coalitions, religious voters are a key constituency of the republican party. particularly thinking about white evangelical protestants to have been strong supporters of the gop in recent years. in recent elections, religious involvement, the frequency with which people say they attend services have been one of the strongest predictors of support of republican candidates.

i think you are on to something there. with respect to democrats, we see a really interesting pattern. on the one hand, there are many strongly religious people in the democratic coalition. particularly, black protestants. this is one of the most seriously religious groups in the population and some of the most religiously involved in the population that are strongly democratic. then you also have in the united states in recent years, a growing number of people who say when it comes to religion, they are religiously affiliated. atheists, agnostics, and a large number of people who say they are just nothing in particular when it comes to religion. in 2012, we find one in five american adults are religiously affiliated, the highest that we have seen. that group, the unaffiliated, it is strongly democratic. in fact, religiously affiliated

voters were house strongly democratic as white evangelicals were republican. on the democratic side, you have this mix of highly religious voters on the one hand who are a key part of the democratic coalition combined with this larger and a growing group of people who are religiously affiliated. host: let me go back to this full-page ad by billy graham. "vote for biblical values and pray with me about america will remain one nation under god." why did he put this ad out? is it unusual for him to take a side in a presidential election? guest: cannot speak to his motivations. i do not know if he has done this in years past. part of what you might be seeing there is an effort to highlight values and concerns that are important to a large number of voters in the united states,

things like same-sex marriage, abortion, topics like religious liberty. we know from our polling that things like the economy, jobs, they have really dominated people's concerns this year. we find upwards of eight in 10 antimonide in 10 voters saying those issues to be very important as they decide how to vote. there are others in the population who want people to also think about other issues, things that we think about as values issues. host: from chicago on the democratic line, good morning. caller: first of all, president obama is a baptist. second of all, it does not surprise me necessarily. the republican party and the

religious right, it is just so odd to me that if you all are a christian, how can you be a republican? in billy graham, republicans are so far out of the realm of what the bible says. host: thank you. let's get a response from greg smith. guest: perhaps with the caller is touching on is the differences in terms of which different groups attached priorities. large rhodora these of church growers -- larger majorities say they hear about hundred and poverty. there are many political commentators and political observers to make the arguments that those kinds of issues, honduras, poverty-related

things, they should be thought about as values issues -- under, poverty-related things should be values issues like same-sex marriages and abortion. a gallon, it can be a matter of priority. what does it mean to bring one's values to the voting booth? it varies from group to group. host: 1 story on our website, preaching politics from the pulpit. what are the rules? how far can any priest or minister or rabbi go in terms of telling a conjugation how to vote? guest: i'm not a lawyer by training, so i cannot speak to exactly where the line is, but in general, the idea is this. many religious organizations are tax-exempt. religious organizations and preachers, priests, they are not prohibited by law from making political statements or even

from endorsing political candidates. to retain their tax-exempt status, they are not supposed to come out in favor of one candidate over another. they're not supposed to urge their parishioners or congregants to vote in a particular weight in an election. that doesn't mean they cannot talk about political issues, broadly defined. that is permissible. they are allowed to talk about political issues. they are also allowed to talk about the importance of voting, being engaged, and being involved in general even if they cannot encourage people to vote in a particular way. host: off twitter. guest: that is interesting.

we have found an increasing number of people saying churches and other houses of worship should keep out of social and political matters. earlier this year, we found an all-time high number saying there has been too much religious talk on the part of politicians and political leaders. there is some evidence of a growing sense of uncomfortable. aboard the ninth in 10 people say they believe in god. in most people, some people say they want a president was strong religious beliefs. seven in tennessee it important to have a president with strong religious beliefs. there is this dichotomy, a growing discomfort about too much religion in politics. at the same time, a nation of believers want to know that their political leaders have

religious values. host: this was published in "the washington post" last week. a professor at george mason university in fairfax. guest: wending that's really interesting about this particular election is the perception of the religion of both candidates. on the one hand, on the republican side, you have a more minutes, mitt romney. we know there are many americans to have reservations about mormons. most americans say they think it's pretty different than their own beliefs. only about half of americans say they think mormonism is a christian religion even though they unanimously assert that it is.

many have reservations about the mormon religion. on the flip side, when it comes to president obama, we have found some considerable degree of confusion or uncertainty and about his religion. almost half of the population can identify him as a christian. large numbers of people think he is a muslim. and a large number say they aren't sure about what his religion is. i think some of these concerns in the electorate about the religion of the candidates may be related to the amount of discussion that we have seen. host: our guest is greg smith, he studied at the university of virginia and he is a senior researcher at the pew research center, pew.org. overall among the electorate,

romney nationwide has a very slight lead over barack obama and there is the breakdown based among religious groups. it is all available at pewforum.org. alice, colorado republican, line. good morning. i am a pro-life catholic and i did attend john f. kennedy's rally in boulder, colorado, back in 1960. i am definitely voting board governor romney. i do not think the government should pay for abortion or birth control. i never want abortions to be a back room deal. that is horrible for anyone. as a catholic, i do not want to pay for anyone else's abortion or birth control. i do say that president obama is extreme. he was one of the few government officials who voted for late

term abortions and where the baby is born live to kill it. he has extreme views. i do not buy two tables and two shares. i do not get two left shows or two right shoes. all people should have their rights. thank you so much. guest: this is some of the conflicting considerations that many catholics bring to political issues. on one hand, we know most catholics are not opposed to birth control. they do not see that as a morally problematic. it at the same time, we did find most catholics say they sympathize with the bishops concerns about threats to

religious liberty. six in 10 catholics say they were aware of the bishops efforts to protest. as they viewed as it hurting their religious liberties. at the same time, but the same catholics told us that when it comes to handling social issues. preferred barack obama to mend rummy in general. we do see a mix of considerations. -- obama to mitt romney in general. host: do you have any statistics on how many republicans will not vote for mitt romney because of his mormon faith? guest: we will have to wait and see what happens on election day. in general, i have not seen much evidence to suggest that many republicans will refrain from supporting him because of his religion.

earlier this summer, we did some polling in asked people whether or not they were comfortable or uncomfortable with his faith. some people said they were uncomfortable with his religion, but it did not seem to make a difference in terms of who they intended to vote for. 9 in 10 said they would vote for romney regardless of whether or not there were comfortable with his faith. even if they were uncomfortable with his religion, nine in 10 said they would vote for him. host: the 1960 race was the last major barrier when a catholic was elected to the presidency. before that, al smith. are you able to compare the mood of the country in 1960 in terms of religion in the catholic faith and today it? guest: back in the 1960's and earlier than that, there were many people in the population

who had reservations about catholicism. many people had reservations about judaism and now many say they have reservations about the mormon faith. in the decades since then, but more and more people have said they have no reservations about catholicism or judaism. more people sit have overwhelmingly favorable views of catholics and jews. mormons, muslims, some other religious groups are seen less favorably. over the long term, you can see people's attitudes towards various religions can change over time. host: a r guest is with the pew research center's forum on religion & public life. the website is pewforum.org. from norfolk, virginia. caller: good morning, mr. smith. i have a run question in terms of hypocrisy.

billy graham is coming out so forcibly for mitt romney but he says the mormon faith is a cult. he is critical of the fact that the mormon faith is not actual christianity. the evangelicals cannot that melts -- denounce this "fraud faith" but they come out so hard against other faiths. i would like to know you have found on that. very quickly, two, on abortion i agree that it is the taking of a life. at the same time, the republicans and evangelicals have done a very poor job through their actions and others. what do you do when the life comes? it's wanting to say you are pro-

life. but then the life actually comes onto life -- are america's shores, what do you do then? host: sari. we are short on time. what do you think of those issues? guest: it's important to keep in mind, as i mentioned, there are many people who have reservations about the mormon faith. evangelicals, more so than others, expressed reservations. they say it is very different than their own faith and they expressed doubt as to whether or not it's a christian religion. in polling we conducted about one year ago now, the results suggested that romney's face had the potential to be an issue in the gop primary campaign. i think you saw that play out. many evangelicals, social conservatives, preferred other candidates to romney.

perhaps because of his conservatism but perhaps concerns about as a mormon faith boswell. the polling data, even at that time one year ago suggested that, while the could be an issue in the primary campaign, it was not likely to be an issue in the general election. that's because people who have had the greatest concerns about more monism, evangelicals, they also tended to be the strongest opponents of barack obama. when faced between a mormon republican and a democratic president, the choice is going to come down on the republican side. we will have to see what happens come tuesday, but we have seen those patterns continue to be in evidence of polling we have conducted. host: new castle, pa., on the democratic line with greg smith. caller: really quick, i of a

quick bone to pick with you, steve. you say we do not have a protestant running. barack obama is a protestant. you say it romney is a mormon and obama calls himself christian, so i have a beef with your word. . host: he attends both adopted christian services as well. caller: protestant distill anything other than roman orthodox catholic. host: how would you classify the president? guest: protestant. caller: you're talking about how the evangelicals view mormons and it's painfully obvious that evangelicals are just religiously and tolerance. ronny will not talk about his mormon faith. for full disclosure, i was an atheist that was raised protestant. it is the same how they treat the muslims. they do not understand that they believe in the same god as them.

who is the gis is that these evangelicals are following that they feel they need to vote extremely right-wing? you know anything about the teachings of jesus or what he said, it is blatantly obvious that he would probably even be to the left of today's democratic party. i do not understand who this jesus is they are following. if you could shed some light on that and also the abortion issue. it is the most hypocritical thing in the world that a lot of these people are so pro-live but there for the death penalty or they are so pro-life that they will go murder an abortion doctor. of that make any sense? please touch on the two would use as a vote for it. i would love to hear your opinion, mr. smith. but you're not going this a democratic, i don't know what to say. host: thank you. we appreciate it. guest:, i cannot speak to jesus would vote for.

i do think people have different interpretations of their religions. people have different interpretations of scripture. they attach priority to different concerns and considerations. i could not speak to jesus would vote for in particular election. in terms of evangelicals and their views of other groups, we do know, as i have mentioned, evangelicals express concerns and reservations about the mormon faith, in particular whether or not it is a christian faith, and they expressed concerns about islam. one interesting results of the polling we conducted in recent years relates to the degree to which people believe that more than one religion can lead to eternal life. we have found large majorities of americans say many religions could lead to eternal life, not

just their own. that is true of many if not most evangelicals. we find many evangelicals telling us multiple religions, including those non-christian religions can lead to eternal life. that's also important keep in mind. there are distinctive beliefs about the room faith and what qualifies as christian or christianity, but at the same time it's not necessarily or entirely exclusive. host: mike from north carolina, good morning. caller: i want to register and in phatic and strong disagreement to the caller who called in and said "religion and should be kept in the home." there are lots of religions. sports is a religion. the people who hoard money is a religion. the're just trying to say judeo-christian ethic is what he once kept in the home.

barack obama can prance around as "protestants" but his religion can really be found at the church he went in chicago. i do not think jesus would vote for anybody, but his teachings would lead him to vote for romney, not because he's better than anyone else, but because he follows the teachings of christ. and what i feel obama is doing. host: thank you for the call. guest: the degree to which people bring their religion to bear, i would just reiterate that many americans seem to make a distinction between too much intermingling of organized religion and organized politics. many people say would be inappropriate for clergy to

endorse candidates from the pulpit. people are very uncomfortable with that kind of intermingling. at the same time, in a nation overwhelmingly comprised of believers, many people think it's appropriate for them to bring their religious values to bear in making public decisions. host: on the phone from massachusetts of the independent line. good morning. caller: and calling in regards -- was born and raised catholic get a very much have a catholic sensibility. faith does have a sensibility about them and one of the predominance and abilities i have as a catholic is charity, compassion, and i do see this lacking all round right now. i would like to say as important as the abortion issue is for everyone, the absence of the discussion of war and immoral war based on lies in the taking

of life and not just for americans but the wounding of americans, it is worldwide what's happening. the taking of lives, the destruction, the absolute destruction has not been mentioned. it has not been mentioned as importantly as abortion. host: your response? guest: just reiterate, there are any number of issues in the political arena to which religious considerations can be brought to bear. it i think you see that in part in the huge numbers of churchgoers, regardless of the nomination, who say they are hearing about things like hungary and poverty. these are undoubtedly issues of concern to religious organizations and that is conveyed to the religious believers. host: as you were researching this, what struck you docks what's your take away?

guest: 1. i will be looking forward to this tuesday is to what extent are the religious patterns we have observed persistent to what extent that they have changed? i do not expect white evangelicals to become democratic, but how strong is the republicans support? of the democratic side, i will be interested to see to what extent do religiously affiliated voters turn out to vote? this is a large and growing group, but it sometimes both that lower rates than compared to other groups. to what extent of a turnout and continue to impact politics? what about the groups in the middle? white catholics, what do they do? that might be a key group to watch, this week. host: pew research center's forum on religion & public life, greg smith. before we leave you, we want to share one of the momen f